At least a dozen large international
investors are lining up to look at a large Spanish property-loan
portfolio sale that will take the temperature of one of Europe's most
distressed real-estate markets.
Commerzbank AG
CBK.XE -2.28%
recently began shopping around the portfolio—code named Project
Octopus—that includes loans with a face value of €4.4 billion ($6
billion) that are backed by shopping centers, hotels and offices.
The
loans were originally extended by Eurohypo AG, a unit of Commerzbank
that is being wound down after suffering large losses in recent years.
The
deal is expected to be one of the biggest of its kind in Europe this
year and will be a key test of investor faith in Spain's budding
economic recovery. Any buyer of the loans likely would pay a discount to
their face value. Still, they would be making a multiyear bet on the
euro zone's fourth-largest economy, which late last year emerged from
more than two years of recession.
Investors looking at the deal include
Blackstone Group
BX +0.67%
L.P., Cerberus Capital Management L.P., Värde Partners,
Apollo Global Management
APO -0.81%
LLC, Lone Star Funds,
Kennedy Wilson,
KW +1.64%
Pacific Investment Management Co., Starwood Capital Group LLC,
CarVal Investors, Colony Capital LLC and Centerbridge Partners L.P.,
according to people familiar with the deal. Some of these funds have
teamed up with large lenders such as
Deutsche Bank AG
DBK.XE +0.56%
and
Wells Fargo
WFC -0.02%
& Co.
Commerzbank, which is
among a number of European banks that have been unloading loan
portfolios to align with new banking regulations, hired investment bank
Lazard Ltd.
LAZ +2.96%
to run the sale. Commerzbank declined to comment.
European
banks still are digging out from an avalanche of bad real-estate debt
that crushed them when the financial crisis hit. In 2014, more than €40
billion in European real-estate loans could be put on the market, a 32%
increase from 2013, according to a report last week from real-estate
broker Cushman & Wakefield.
Big
sellers include so-called bad banks that were set up in Spain and
Ireland to manage soured real-estate assets. Those banks are increasing
their disposal activity, while sales in Italy also are expected to pick
up, said
Andrew Sim,
head of European investment at Knight Frank in London.
Spain's
real-estate market has seen a revival of late. The government, through
its bad-bank structure Sareb, is expected to put several large property
portfolios up for sale in the first quarter, and local banks also are
looking to reduce their exposure to real estate.
However,
there are reasons to be cautious, say some analysts. A shock to the
economy would be a "particularly big problem" for the property market,
where asset values have fallen far less than in other troubled countries
like Ireland, said
Matthew Richardson,
European real-estate research director at Fidelity Worldwide
Investment in London.
"If you're an institutional investor running third-party money, it's a heck of a risk to take," Mr. Richardson said.
Last
week, Commerzbank sold €710 million of nonperforming Spanish property
loans to hedge funds. In December, it sold €280 million of shipping
loans to a buyer affiliated with Oaktree Capital Management L.P.
The
latest Commerzbank Spanish portfolio sale is expected to be completed
this summer. Interested investors will participate in the first round of
bidding within the next four to six weeks, a person close to the deal
said.
The deal could be structured
similarly to Commerzbank's £4 billion ($6.6 billion) U.K. real-estate
portfolio deal last year, said people familiar with the ongoing process.
About half the Spanish portfolio consists of performing loans, while
the other half is split between nonperforming and subperforming loans,
these people said.
The U.K. sale was
broken into two parts, with Wells Fargo taking control of £2.7 billion
in performing loans, while Lone Star took on £1.3 billion of
nonperforming loans.
There also is a
chance one investor could buy the whole portfolio, said
Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero,
managing director in Spain at CBRE Group Inc., which is
representing one of the bidders. He noted only a handful of bidders have
the resources to consider this option.
Large
asset managers such as Lone Star and Kennedy Wilson have opened local
offices in the Spanish capital, and funds including Apollo Global
Management and TPG Capital LLP have purchased real-estate servicing
units from local banks, giving them a platform to manage the assets they
buy.
On Tuesday, a portfolio of seven
shopping centers in Spain was sold to U.K.-based GreenOak Real Estate
Advisors L.P. and Spanish investor Grupo Lar Real Estate Investments SA
for €160 million by Dutch property fund
Vastned Retail
VASTN.AE -0.25%
NV.
The rising number of
investors looking at distressed Spanish assets also may drive prices
higher, increasing risk. A person familiar with Project Octopus noted
the deal was "extraordinarily" well bid.
"You
look at the bigger picture and it sounds pretty good. But on second
look, you're thinking the good news might be priced in," the person
said.
Source: online.wsj.com
Source: online.wsj.com